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What Every Citizen Should Know About Our Planet
2011 Edition
A u g u s t A n s o n
Light years better than Beyond Six Billion
Ecology, thresholds, tipping points, limiting
factors, feedback loops,
overpopulation, conservation biology, and planetary
carrying capacity
Targeting policymakers, scholars, educators,
students, conservationists, the general public, and citizens everywhere
See navigation bar for PowerPoints
and PDF excerpts
Arguably, the two graphs below may depict
THE
SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT DATA SET
in the history of our species
| Human Population Growth - 8000 B.C. to 2100 A.D. |
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| Click image to enlarge graph |
Notice that beginning with a worldwide population of
two billion in 1930,
we reached seven billion late in 2011.
Five additional
billions in a single human lifetime
and we are on-track to add still more billions
(numbers
eight and nine) by 2041,
and U.N. medium-fertility models project more
than 10
billion by the close of this century...
Notice that our data sets show that virtually all
of our growth has occurred
since 1800 and
we are currently adding an additional billion
to our numbers every twelve to
fifteen years.
.
And the real-world numbers that could emerge may actually be VERY much higher,
| 15.8 Billion by 2100? - And notice the J-curve |
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| Click image to enlarge |
for if worldwide fertility rates average just 1/2 child per
woman higher than the U.N.'s "medium-fertility" projections,
we will find ourselves on-track toward 15.8 BILLION by 2100 (these latter numbers are depicted in the graph shown left)
Notice that both graphs depicted above are quite-pronounced
J-curves
Thus, despite an unwarranted complacency among many, humanity's central problems today include,
among other things, (a) the impending arrival of our 7th, 8th, and 9th billions by 2041, as well billion number 10 (and/or
11, 12, 13, 14, and/or 15.8 by the end of this century, along with (b) the extreme levels of overpopulation and
environmental impacts that we already exhibit.
As a result, a continuation of today's demographic tidal wave may
constitute
the greatest single risk that our species has ever undertaken
Scientists, students, mathematicians, educators, other scholars,
and
policymakers might note that the both graphs on this page
suggest that we may well be living through
the closing phases of an exponential progression
It might also be noted that the graph below bears a striking similarity to
a
graph of the fission events that took place inside the nuclear
detonation that destroyed Hiroshima,
Japan at the close of World War II
| J-curve |
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Each day there are approximately 380,683 births that take place somewhere around the world. During the same twenty-four hours,
there are approximately 153,653 deaths
Which means that despite a prevailing sense of complacency seen in some economic and political circles,
world population now grows larger by approximately 227,000 extra persons per
day
(After World Population Data Sheet 2009,
Populatiion Reference Bureau).
Sample implications?
If today is Friday, by this
same time on Monday, earth will
be home to more than 681,000 additional persons.
(Hopefully, someone, somewhere, is planning to
grow a lot of extra food over the weekend.)
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