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Beyond Six Billion
by
John Bongaarts and Rodolfo Bulatao
National Academy Press, 2000
If Beyond Six Billion were written about the voyage
of the passenger liner Titanic, it would be packed with data on the ship's past and future speeds, engine room data, time
at sea and distances potentially traversed under alternate assumptions of currents, water density, wave direction, wind speeds,
and engine rpm's.
But there would be nothing in the book about colliding with icebergs.
There are BSB chapters on population projections, transitional fertility,
post-transitional fertility, mortality, international migration, the accuracy of past projections, and forecast uncertainties. And there are a host of charts, graphs, data tables, and citations - for which we
thank the panelists. However,
the report's great weakness is this:
It contains no discussion, evaluation, or consideration of
limits
§
overshoot
or
planetary carrying capacity
Indeed,
these terms are not to be found in the book's 217 pages, nor in its index, nor in its recommendations. For any reader wishing to educate themselves about earth's
population, the topic's most important terms and concepts are not to be found.
The words "business as usual," however
mangage to appear repeatedly
By making no evaluation, presentation, or analysis of the environmental impacts of
a seventh, eighth, ninth, tenth, or even an eleventh billion, the BSB report has ignored the very reason that population issues
should be discussed. The BSB report offers
its readers no discussion, analysis, or evaluations of plausible, reasonable, unreasonable, and implausible carrying capacities.
Similarly, BSB offers no discussion or contemplation of the possibility, likelihood, and/or implications of overshoot.
These missing topics are serious intellectual omissions in any
report carrying
the imprimatur of the National Academy Press.
Captain of the Titanic: I
notice that you have nothing here about running into icebergs. Why not?
Economist: Because
icebergs (carrying capacities) are externalities and are too unpredictable.
Demographer: In addition, icebergs are
outside our field of expertise – so we left them out.
Without
criticizing any of the BSB panelists individually, it is appropriate to argue that a major review of a topic that is so fundamentally
biological should have included more biologists and fewer economists, political scientists, statisticians, and sociologists.
The omission of carrying capacities, overshoot, and limits from BSB does not banish such topics
into nonexistence, but, unfortunately, it does diminish the chances of serious public discussion.
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pgs 175-176 A Legacy of Underestimates...
Continued advances in science and medical research repeatedly extend life expectancies and reduce
mortalities more significantly than contemplated by demographic models...
We may be on the verge of ushering in a revolution in medical science and longevity...
Over the past one hundred years, mankind has followed a repeated pattern following new discoveries
and technical advances. First there is an initial achievement quickly followed by rapid advances, proliferation, and
wide and novel applications.
At Kitty Hawk, North Carolina in 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright flew a heavier-than-air vehicle
for twelve seconds and a distance of 120 feet. Less than seven decades later, U.S. astronauts orbited the earth, traveled
to the moon, landed on its surface, and returned safely to earth again in just over one week.
Similar patterns have characterized the development of computers, communications, DNA technologies,
and molecular biology - each beginning wih technical advances, followed by quick proliferation and progression with breathtaking
speed.
Thus, today's advances in medicine, genomics, molecular genetics, and biotechnologies may have dramatic
impacts on death rates and demographics in the half-century just ahead.
pgs178-181 U.N. Projections to the Year 2300....
The U.N.'s projections to the year 2300 need to be assessed with some skepticism. First we
should question the appropriateness of trying to project anything 300 years into the future... Try to imagine, for example,
citizens of the year 1710 attempting to project the eventualities of the year 2010... Having a multitude of their own, more
immediate concerns in their own times, had they been offered projections for the year 2010, they might be excused for ignoring
the information... and mentally assigning those reponsibilities to persons living in the 2010. Thus, the U.N.'s
300-year projection acts to obscure the crises of the decades just ahead (a 7th, 8th, and 9th billion by 2055) and distracts
our attention from the immediate nature of these crises.
By offering projections to the year 2300, the U.N. report tempts us to dismiss immediate population
matters and to assign our own responsibilities to distant generations....
Worse still:
The U.N.'s press release listed "key findings" of its report - which journalists, citizens,
and world leaders with busy schedules trustingly accept as official and presumably reliable sources to guide their policy
decisions. Unfotunately, the very first of these "key findings" misleads its readers
as follows:
"According to the medium scenario... world population would rise from today's 6.3 billion to around
nine billion in 2300."
Anyone who trustingly accepts this statement might suppose it to mean that we will gradually rise
from today's 6.3 billion and eventually climb to nine billion around 2300 - producing the
mistaken impression that we and our planet have nearly 300 years before any confrontation with our ninth billion
will occur.
The press statement thus dangerously misleads those who trust it because it makes no mention
of the fact that a 7th, 8th, and 9th billion are quite likely to arrive before 2055.
pgs 181-183 The Fallacy of the Agricultural Maximum
The late Roger Revelle achieved much of distinction in his life and his career, but his ultimate
legacy may undermine his other contributions. Writing several decades ago, Dr. Revelle once estimated earth's carrying
capacity to be 44 billion - a number derived primarily be imagining that food supplies (as opposed to environmental damage
or industrial wastes) constituted the principal limiting factor for mankind (Revelle, 1974; 1976).
Given our impacts today, it is hard to imagine a carrying capacity of 44 billion. To envision
a world with 44 billion people we can multiply the impacts of our current 6.5 billion by a factor of seven....
How on earth was an imagined carrying capacity of 44 billion ever derived? It was derived utilizing
optimistic calculations involving agriculture and food supplies - with no allowance for the wastes (and damage) generated
by those billions, or planetary limits to accommodating those wastes, and with no consideration of the destructive impacts
inflicted by each of those added billions when armed with the machinery, pollution, technologies, luxuries, and weapons
of modern society.
A principal weakness arises from Revelle's unstated (and unexamined) assumption that agriculture
and food are the principal (or even the only) factors governing mankind's limits.
It is a fallacy to suppose that, by simply calculating an agricultural maximum, we have somehow
identified earth's carrying capacity for our species.
The same unstated supposition is still common in the writings of various economists, journalists,
and agronomists.
Here are the major questions arising from Roger Revelle's estimates: What if they are wrong?
Nowhere in his papers does he contemplate or address this possibility. What
are the consequences if his estimates of 44 billion are too high and the number is only 12 billion
or 10 billion, or 2 billion?
We submit that there is a specific and fundamental repertoire of
scientific information that every citizen should know about ecology, demographics, natural systems, and our planet.
The central understandings of that repertoire are introduced in WECSKAOP and specifically enumerated in appendices one
and two (pgs 288-294).
pgs 266-268
All students, regardless of major, should develop mastery of Wecskaop-like
concepts and demographics early in their freshman year.... How is it possible that in this advanced, scientific age, just one third of American universities and colleges require students to take at
least one course in the natural sciences (Wilson, 1998). And even when such courses are required, it is an easy
bet that somewhere this precious time is being wasted on inconsequential topics such as the gullet of a paramecium and coenocytic
fungi...
Thus, in his book Consilience (1997), E.O. Wilson observes that "...the
vast majority of our political leaders are trained exclusively in the social sciences and humanities and have little or no
knowledge of the natural sciences. The same is true of our public intellectuals, the columnists, the media interrogators,
and think-tank gurus. The best of their analyses are careful and responsible, and sometimes correct, but the substantive
base of their wisdom is fragmented and lopsided..."
pg 267
One recent college text offered this assessment: "Today, human
population growth represents the most significant biological phenomenon on our planet." This statement, however, appeared
in chapter 54 on page 1093 near the end of the text. Given the serious implications of today's population growth, we
might mention our planet's "most significant biological phenomenon" somewhat earlier in the text.
pg 295
A quick examination of two current college-level ecology texts revealed
that in both cases the text glossary failed to list or define any of
the following key terms: climb and collapse, thresholds, tipping points, delayed feedbacks (lag-times), the million-billion
dichotomy, Earth's atmosphere and seas as thin films, and ecological release.
Furthermore, the following additional terms were also missing
in one or the other of the two glossaries examined: exponential, positive feedbacks and their self-intensifying effects,
negative feedbacks and their stabilizing or buffering effects...
pg 287
If we make no decisions, or if we make the wrong decisions,
our planet has default settings that will be applied....
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WECSKAOP
What Every Citizen Should Know About
Our Planet
List $22.95 ISBN 978-0-933078-18-8
University, Library, and Educational Discounts Available
M. Arman Publishing
P.O. Box 785
Ormond Beach, FL 32175
Voice: 386-673-5576
Fax: 386-951-1101
Copyright 2008, Randolph Femmer.
All rights reserved.
.....
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